Mortgage Mom Radio Weekly - September 11, 2026

Friday, September 11

0.32%

between the rate on the news and the rate on your sheet

Freddie Mac published 6.76% yesterday morning. Lenders were quoting 7.08% today. The survey is taken Monday through Wednesday and released on Thursday, so the headline number is always a day or two behind the market. Your rate sheet is not.

Freddie Mac PMMS and Mortgage News Daily, September 11, 2026. National averages for illustration only, not a commitment to lend. Your rate depends on credit, loan amount, property and full underwriting.

The market right now

Who has the leverage, and where

Rates are not the only lever, and they are the one you have least control over. There is money on the table in most of the country right now — what matters is how you take it. Off the price it barely moves your payment; as a rate buydown it moves a lot.

Sources: National Mortgage Professional · NAHB, August 2026. Housing-market conditions vary by metro and by property; national figures are not a forecast for any specific home or offer.

From Debbie

We are back above 7%. Daily lender pricing on a 30-year conventional loan is at 7.08% this morning, up from 6.88% a week ago, and the 10-year Treasury is at 4.97%. Nobody at the Fed voted on anything. It all happened in the bond market again.

And not for lack of trying. The government announced a $6 billion buyback of its own bonds, which is supposed to push yields down. Yields went up instead, because the market wanted more than it got. That is the whole lesson of Wednesday’s show: it is never just what they do, it is what they do versus what everyone expected.

Then this morning, the August inflation report. The headline came in hot — up 0.4% for the month and 3.4% over the year, with gasoline alone accounting for over a third of the monthly jump. But core inflation, which strips out food and energy, actually cooled, to 2.4% from 2.5% in July. A hot headline with a cool core usually gets a much smaller reaction than people expect.

Here is the catch, and it is why I recorded the video below. That cool number is not the one the Fed steers by. They watch core PCE, and for July it was running at 3.3% while core CPI sat at 2.5%. So a friendly CPI report does not automatically mean relief. The Fed meets on the 15th and 16th, and I am not going to pretend to know what they will do.

What I do know is that waiting for a headline to rescue your payment has not worked for anybody this year. If you are under contract or close to it, lock-or-float is a real decision that depends on your closing date, not on the news. Let’s make it together.

— Debbie

New this week

Last week it was Jackson Hole. This week, two official inflation reports that disagree by almost a full point — 20 min on which one actually moves the Fed.

CPI vs PCE Explained: Why Official Inflation Numbers Don’t Agree

For July, core CPI came in at 2.5% and core PCE at 3.3% — same month, same country, both correct. Debbie walks through what CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE each actually measure, which one the Fed really steers by, and why core CPI is running further below core PCE than at any point since 2000. It comes down to one thing: shelter. No predictions, just the numbers everyone quotes at you.

This week’s buyer

$450,000 · first-time · 680 score · $22,000 available

A hundred and twenty-eight dollars a month apart, and not for the reason most people assume. FHA gets you in with a lower credit floor and easier debt-to-income guidelines, but that mortgage insurance follows you for the life of the loan. Conventional needs a stronger credit profile, and the PMI falls off on its own at 78% loan-to-value.

Rates as of September 11, 2026 from Mortgage News Daily; APR estimates use industry-standard fee uplifts. For illustration only. Not a commitment to lend. Actual rates, payments and eligibility depend on full underwriting. Property tax estimated at ~1.0% of purchase price annually and homeowners insurance at ~$1,400/year; actual amounts vary by county, property and coverage. HOA dues not included.

On the show this week

Treasury Buybacks Explained: What Actually Moves Your Mortgage Rate

The government announced it would spend $6 billion buying back its own bonds. That is supposed to push yields down, and mortgage rates with them. Yields went up instead, and the 10-year hit its highest level since 2023. Debbie explains why — it is never just what they do, it is what they do versus what the market expected — plus where rates actually stand right now, one surprise on ARMs, and what to do if you have been waiting for rates to come down.

Talk to me Debbie Marcoux Mortgage Mom · NMLS #237926 · on air Wednesdays 3PM PT

If something in here raised a question, ask me. You do not have to be ready to buy, you do not need paperwork, and there is no application involved. Most of what I do all day is answer questions for people who are still figuring it out.

Pick a time that works for you and we will talk it through.

Where I can help. Licensed in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas and Washington. If you are buying somewhere else, tell me anyway and I will say so straight away.

Send me your scenario.

I will run your actual numbers for your actual situation. No pressure, no application.

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Debbie Marcoux, NMLS #237926 · JMJ Financial dba Mortgage Mom Radio, NMLS #167867 · Equal Housing Lender. Licensed in AZ, CA, CO, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, NV, NC, OR, TN, TX, WA.

Debbie Marcoux is a licensed mortgage loan originator. She is not a financial advisor, investment adviser, tax professional or attorney, and nothing in this newsletter is financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Consult your own professional about your particular situation before acting.

For illustrative and educational purposes only. Not a commitment to lend. Rates, terms and eligibility subject to underwriting approval and change without notice.