Friday, September 4 0.17% between the rate on the news and the rate on your sheet Freddie Mac published 6.71% yesterday morning. Lenders were quoting 6.88% today. The survey is taken Monday through Wednesday and released on Thursday, so the headline number is always a day or two behind the market. Your rate sheet is not. Freddie Mac PMMS and Mortgage News Daily, September 4, 2026. National averages for illustration only, not a commitment to lend. Your rate depends on credit, loan amount, property and full underwriting. |
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The market right now Who has the leverage, and where 41/50 of the largest markets now favor buyers | 1 in 5 listings took a price cut in July | 35% of builders cut prices in August | 63% of builders are paying incentives |
Rates are not the only lever, and they are the one you have least control over. There is money on the table in most of the country right now — what matters is how you take it. Off the price it barely moves your payment; as a rate buydown it moves a lot. Sources: National Mortgage Professional · NAHB, August 2026. Housing-market conditions vary by metro and by property; national figures are not a forecast for any specific home or offer. |
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From Debbie Last week I told you to watch Jackson Hole instead of waiting on the September meeting. Here is where that leaves us seven days later. When I wrote to you last Friday, traders put the odds of a rate increase in September at roughly one in three. They now put it at about two in three. That is not a small drift. Chairman Warsh was unambiguous that the 2% inflation target is firm, PCE came in at 3.7% and well above it, and the market did the math out loud. You can see it in the numbers. Freddie Mac’s survey went from 6.66% to 6.71%. Daily lender pricing went from 6.76% to 6.88%. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.77%. Nobody at the Fed voted on anything. This all happened in the bond market, exactly where I said it would. Here is the part that surprises people, though. Most of a September hike is already in your rate sheet. Lenders do not wait for the vote, they price the expectation. So the meeting on the 16th may come and go without moving your quote much at all — because the move already happened, over the last two weeks, while everyone was waiting. Which turns the real question into lock or float. That one depends on your closing date and your risk tolerance, not on a headline, and it is worth twelve minutes of your time. I recorded exactly that, below. — Debbie |
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Since Jackson Hole Last week we talked about what Friday might change. New this week, 12 min on where it actually landed.  Lock Or Float? Rate Hike Odds Jumped To 66% After Jackson Hole Rate sheets have already priced much of this in, which is why a hike on the 16th may not move mortgage rates much on the day it happens. Debbie covers what Warsh actually said and why the market read it as hawkish, what “already priced in” really means, the 60-day rule she gives clients on locking, and the one question to ask any lender about float-down programs before you lock. Watch the breakdown · 12 min |
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This week’s buyer $450,000 · first-time · 680 score · $22,000 available $3,470 FHA 6.44% / 7.34% APR
$15,750 down · $203 MI
MI for the life of the loan | $3,597 Conventional 3% 6.88% / 6.99% APR
$13,500 down · $236 PMI
PMI drops off at 78% LTV |
A hundred and twenty-seven dollars a month apart, and not for the reason most people assume. FHA gets you in with a lower credit floor and easier debt-to-income guidelines, but that mortgage insurance follows you for the life of the loan. Conventional needs a stronger credit profile, and the PMI falls off on its own at 78% loan-to-value. Rates as of September 4, 2026 from Mortgage News Daily; APR estimates use industry-standard fee uplifts. For illustration only. Not a commitment to lend. Actual rates, payments and eligibility depend on full underwriting. Property tax estimated at ~1.0% of purchase price annually and homeowners insurance at ~$1,400/year; actual amounts vary by county, property and coverage. HOA dues not included. |
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On the show this week  Can You Take Over Someone Else’s 3% Mortgage? There are people paying two and a half percent on a mortgage right now, and if that loan is FHA, VA or USDA a buyer may be able to take it over instead of borrowing at today’s rates. It is called an assumption, almost nobody uses it, and it is not the same thing as the portable mortgage in the policy debate. Debbie covers who qualifies, what it actually saves, and the two things that stop most assumptions from happening. Watch the replay |
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 | Talk to me Debbie Marcoux Mortgage Mom · NMLS #237926 · on air Wednesdays 3PM PT |
If something in here raised a question, ask me. You do not have to be ready to buy, you do not need paperwork, and there is no application involved. Most of what I do all day is answer questions for people who are still figuring it out. Pick a time that works for you and we will talk it through. Where I can help. Licensed in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas and Washington. If you are buying somewhere else, tell me anyway and I will say so straight away. |
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Debbie Marcoux, NMLS #237926 · JMJ Financial dba Mortgage Mom Radio, NMLS #167867 · Equal Housing Lender. Licensed in AZ, CA, CO, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, NV, NC, OR, TN, TX, WA. Debbie Marcoux is a licensed mortgage loan originator. She is not a financial advisor, investment adviser, tax professional or attorney, and nothing in this newsletter is financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Consult your own professional about your particular situation before acting. For illustrative and educational purposes only. Not a commitment to lend. Rates, terms and eligibility subject to underwriting approval and change without notice. |
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