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# Why Did Mortgage Rates Rise After the Treasury's Bond Buyback?
- URL: https://www.mortgagemomradio.com/why-did-mortgage-rates-rise-after-the-treasurys-bond-buyback/
- Published: 2026-09-09T22:35:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-17T18:13:42.000Z
- Description: The Treasury announced a $6 billion buyback of its own bonds, which should have pushed yields and mortgage rates down. Yields rose instead. Debbie explains what a buyback is, why an announcement smaller than the market expected moves rates the wrong way, and what that means if you have been waiting
- Author: Deborah Marcoux
- Tags: Podcast, Mortgage Mom Radio, #episode-backfill, #topic-rates-fed

Mortgage Mom Radio • Live show from Wednesday, September 9, 2026 • 34 minutes • Hosted by Debbie Marcoux, NMLS #237926

The Treasury announced it would buy back $6 billion of its own bonds. Buying bonds is supposed to lift their price and push yields down, and mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield — so that should have been good news for anyone shopping for a home loan. Yields went up instead. In this episode Debbie explains what a buyback is, why an announcement that lands smaller than the market expected pushes rates the wrong way, and what that says to anyone still waiting for a rescue on their rate.

Straight answers from this show. Each one links to the moment in the video where it is explained, and each carries the date it was given.

## What is a Treasury buyback?

A Treasury buyback is the government buying back its own bonds before they mature. More buyers means a higher price for those bonds, and bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so a buyback is meant to push yields down.

The Treasury borrows by selling bonds, and a buyback reverses part of that by repurchasing notes ahead of their maturity date. Because a 30-year fixed mortgage is priced off the 10-year Treasury yield rather than off the Federal Reserve's overnight rate, anything that moves that yield tends to move mortgage pricing with it, which is why a buyback announcement is watched by people shopping for a home loan. Debbie Marcoux walked through the mechanism in plain English on the September 9, 2026 broadcast: the government buys the debt back, demand for those notes rises, prices rise, and yields fall. The mechanism is real, and it still did not produce the expected result that day, because the size of the announced program mattered more than the direction of the action. A buyback is also not a permanent support: it runs for a stated window and covers stated maturities, so its effect fades once the market has absorbed it.

As of the live show on September 9, 2026\. Bond market relationships described as of the air date; yields move daily.

Source: Debbie Marcoux, NMLS #237926, JMJ Financial Group, NMLS #167867, on Mortgage Mom Radio (September 9, 2026).

[Watch this answer (09:00) →](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLx0E9Gj%5FXQ&t=540&ref=mortgagemomradio.com)

## Why did mortgage rates go up after the Treasury announced a buyback?

Because the program was smaller than the market expected. The announcement covered $6 billion of notes, while analysts had been looking for about $10 billion. Support that lands below every published estimate reads as less help than assumed, so yields rose instead of falling.

Pricing in the bond market reflects what traders already expect, so an action only moves yields to the extent it differs from that expectation. Debbie Marcoux made the gap concrete on the September 9, 2026 broadcast: Morgan Stanley and Jefferies had both anticipated about $10 billion, the conservative estimates sat at $7 to $8 billion, and the announced buyback was $6 billion of 10- and 20-year notes through early November. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.841% that morning, its highest since 2023\. The same logic governs Federal Reserve decisions, which is why a cut that was fully priced in can leave mortgage rates unchanged, and why a surprise in either direction moves them within hours. For a borrower, the practical lesson is that no announcement is good news by itself until it is compared with what the market had already assumed.

As of the live show on September 9, 2026\. Yields and expectations quoted are from the air date and move daily.

Source: Debbie Marcoux, NMLS #237926, JMJ Financial Group, NMLS #167867, on Mortgage Mom Radio (September 9, 2026).

[Watch this answer (06:30) →](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLx0E9Gj%5FXQ&t=390&ref=mortgagemomradio.com)

## Does a Federal Reserve rate hike raise your mortgage payment?

Not on a fixed-rate mortgage. A fixed mortgage payment does not change when the Federal Reserve moves its rate, and pricing on a new mortgage follows the 10-year Treasury yield rather than the Federal Reserve's overnight rate. Variable debt is what reprices immediately after a hike.

A home equity line of credit, credit card balances, car loans and other short-term financing are priced off the Federal Reserve's rate plus a margin, so an increase shows up in those payments within a billing cycle or two. Debbie Marcoux put the consequence plainly on the September 9, 2026 broadcast: a hike does not benefit anyone carrying variable debt, and the time to have a debt consolidation, second mortgage or equity line conversation is before the next meeting rather than after it. Mortgage pricing works differently because a long fixed loan is valued against long-term bond yields. That is why mortgage rates can climb during a stretch when the Federal Reserve has not moved at all, and why a borrower watching only Federal Reserve headlines will keep being surprised by the rate sheet.

As of the live show on September 9, 2026\. Variable-rate terms and margins vary by lender and by account agreement.

Source: Debbie Marcoux, NMLS #237926, JMJ Financial Group, NMLS #167867, on Mortgage Mom Radio (September 9, 2026).

[Watch this answer (19:00) →](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLx0E9Gj%5FXQ&t=1140&ref=mortgagemomradio.com)

## Should you wait for mortgage rates to come down before you buy?

Waiting for a rescue is not a plan. Debbie Marcoux's position is that the decision belongs on the payment: budget it, confirm it is comfortable, and buy on that basis. A rate that improves later can be refinanced; a year spent waiting cannot be recovered.

Debbie Marcoux built the case from the day's evidence rather than from a forecast. The government took a direct, deliberate action intended to bring long-term yields down, and yields rose the same afternoon, which says more about how little any single tool controls mortgage rates than a rate prediction would. The pressures on the other side are large: a national debt above $40 trillion, tariff-driven inflation and oil above $100 a barrel. Against that, a modest buyback is small. The advice that follows is unglamorous and consistent with what Debbie Marcoux has said for months: get into a payment that has been budgeted and is genuinely affordable, rather than stretching on the assumption that a refinance will arrive to fix it. Anyone who has been on the sidelines waiting for cheaper money has been waiting a long time already.

As of the live show on September 9, 2026\. General education about market conditions on the air date, not a recommendation about any individual transaction.

Source: Debbie Marcoux, NMLS #237926, JMJ Financial Group, NMLS #167867, on Mortgage Mom Radio (September 9, 2026).

[Watch this answer (14:00) →](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLx0E9Gj%5FXQ&t=840&ref=mortgagemomradio.com)

## Key takeaways

- **A Treasury buyback is the government buying back its own bonds before they mature.** More buyers means higher bond prices, and prices and yields move in opposite directions, so a buyback is supposed to push yields — and mortgage rates — down.
- **It did the opposite.** The announced program was $6 billion of 10- and 20-year notes through early November. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.841% that morning, its highest since 2023, with the 30-year at 5.292% and the 2-year at 4.415%.
- **The gap between the announcement and the expectation is the whole story.** Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Jefferies had both anticipated about $10 billion, and even the conservative estimates sat at $7 to $8 billion. A support measure that lands below every estimate does not read as support.
- **Expectations are the market, not actions.** $6 billion is real money and a real expansion over the $2 billion pledged in August. It still moved yields the wrong way, because more had already been priced in. The same is true of the Fed: what matters is what they do relative to what was expected.
- **The forces pushing against your rate are bigger than the tools being used** — a national debt above $40 trillion, tariff-driven inflation, and oil above $100 a barrel. A $6 billion buyback is small against that.
- **Nobody is coming to rescue your rate.** Debbie's honest read: stop waiting on the sidelines for a lower rate to save a deal that does not work today. Get into a payment you have budgeted for and can carry.
- **A Fed hike would not change a fixed mortgage**, but it does hit home equity lines, credit card balances and short-term financing right away — so a debt consolidation or second mortgage conversation is worth having before the next meeting.

## Chapters

- 01:30Welcome: expectations versus reactions
- 02:30What the Treasury Secretary announced
- 05:00$6 billion in 10- and 20-year notes
- 06:00The 10-year hits its highest since 2023
- 06:30The gap: $6 billion against $10 billion expected
- 09:00What a buyback is, in plain English
- 10:30Where Treasury yields landed
- 12:00The part that matters to a homeowner
- 13:00Debt, tariffs and oil: forces bigger than the tool
- 14:00Nobody is coming to rescue your rate
- 16:30Where rates actually stand
- 19:00Who a Fed hike actually hits
- 20:30The economic backdrop: jobs and inflation
- 23:00No parties, no blame: where inflation started
- 25:30What one consumer can actually do
- 29:30Wrap-up: newsletter, calendar and questions

## Questions answered on this show

### “If the government is buying bonds, why did my rate go up?”

Because the market expected a bigger program. Buying bonds does support their price, and higher prices mean lower yields, which normally pulls mortgage rates down with them. But traders had already priced in roughly $10 billion of buybacks. When the announcement came in at $6 billion — below even the conservative $7 to $8 billion estimates — the market read it as less support than assumed, and yields rose the same day.

### “Does a Federal Reserve hike change my mortgage payment?”

Not on a fixed-rate mortgage, and not directly on a new one either — mortgage pricing follows the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed's overnight rate. What a hike does hit immediately is variable debt: a home equity line of credit, credit card balances, car loans and other short-term financing. If a debt consolidation, a second mortgage or an equity line is on your list, that is the reason to have the conversation sooner rather than later.

## This week's numbers (week of September 9, 2026 — averages, not quotes)

- Freddie Mac 30-year fixed average: **6.71%** (week of September 3)
- 30-year daily averages: **6.73% to 6.77%**, varying by tracker
- 15-year fixed average: **6.07%**
- 10-year Treasury: **4.841%** — the highest since 2023
- 30-year Treasury: **5.292%**; 2-year Treasury: **4.415%**
- Fed funds target: **3.50% to 3.75%**
- Market-implied odds of a hike at the September meeting: **60% to 63%** — pricing that moves daily
- Unemployment **4.1%**; headline CPI **3.4%**; core CPI **2.5%**; core PCE **3.3%**

*Your rate depends on FICO score, property type, loan balance, and loan purpose. These are national averages for context, not a quote.*

### Run your own numbers instead of waiting on the market

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## Full transcript

Show the full transcript (lightly edited for clarity) 

*Auto-generated captions cleaned for readability. Sponsor messages, commercial breaks, and repeated housekeeping have been trimmed; licensing information appears at the bottom of this page.*

### Expectations versus reactions

Welcome to Mortgage Mom Radio. I'm Debbie Marcoux, I am the Mortgage Mom, and today we are talking about interest rates. We have talked about this before, and I have explained how market expectations versus reactions are what actually drive interest rates — not what the Fed does.

Today was a huge day. We saw a very sharp increase in interest rates, very quickly. This is a great show for explaining how expectations versus what actually happens changes where interest rates go, rather than hanging everything on the next Fed meeting. Today is September the 9th, so if you are watching this later, I want you to be able to line up what was happening when.

Today the Treasury Secretary came out and said the government is going to buy back $6 billion in Treasury notes. That should have driven yields down and brought interest rates down with them. Instead we got the opposite reaction. So today's show is about why — and it is also a way of showing you, with data, that you cannot buy the market. It is the reactions of the market that control our interest rates.

If it looks like I am reading a bit, I am. I took notes so I do not miss anything I want to get to you. And this is an interactive show, so please put your questions and comments in the feed and I will read them out loud and answer them.

### Nationwide averages, not a rate quote

Remember that this show is nationwide, so the information I give is meant to be useful wherever you live, and when I do numbers I am talking national averages so we all understand what is happening in the market. It is not your personal scenario and it is not a rate quote.

### What was announced

On Tuesday the Treasury Secretary announced the government would buy back $6 billion of its own 10- and 20-year Treasury notes through early November. Those notes are debt — government debt they are trying to start buying back to relieve a little of the deficit we are in.

Buying bonds is supposed to support their price and push yields down. That is what was expected when the announcement was made, and instead yields went up. The 10-year hit 4.841% this morning. Obviously it could have moved between the time I did my research and now, 3 p.m. on September the 9th, but as of this morning we hit 4.841%. That is the highest level we have seen since 2023 — and 2023 into 2024 were the highest rates we have had in a decade.

Why the difference? The gap between what was announced and what the market had been told to expect. The analysts were looking at about $10 billion in buybacks, and instead the announcement was $6 billion. Even the conservative analysts were expecting $7 to $8 billion. The announcement did not support what was expected, so instead of driving yields down, which buying back debt should have done, it drove yields up. We had a pretty bad day on our rate sheets.

### What a buyback is, in plain English

So what is a buyback? The Treasury borrows money by selling bonds. A buyback is the government buying some of those bonds back before their maturity date. More buyers means higher prices, and bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so a buyback is supposed to push yields down. As more people buy those bonds, the bonds become worth more, and that pushes Treasury yields down, which brings interest rates down with them. It did nothing of the sort today.

Your mortgage rate follows the 10-year Treasury yield. We do not follow the Federal Reserve rate. Yes, the Fed's rate feeds into where the market ends up, because that is the overnight short-term borrowing rate from bank to bank, but it is not the piece mortgage rates actually follow.

### Where the yields landed

Because we did not hit the expectation of what most people following the market were looking for, the 10-year Treasury went up. It hit 4.841%, about four basis points higher, and the highest since 2023\. The 30-year Treasury moved to 5.292% and the 2-year to 4.415%.

The announced program was $6 billion covering the 10- and 20-year notes through early November. Morgan Stanley and Jefferies had both anticipated $10 billion, and the low end of estimates — the conservative guys — was $7 to $8 billion. As one analyst put it, the figure landed below even conservative estimates. Another read was that a larger program would have been an admission that the Treasury had not thought through its hasty August 19th announcement.

So they announce they are going to buy back bonds, the analysts build their expectations of what is coming, and then the number comes in nowhere near that — and interest rates jump to a whole new level in a single day.

### The part that matters to a homeowner

Expectations are the market, not actions. Just because the Fed drops or raises its rate, or the Treasury Secretary says they are going to buy back bonds before maturity, does not mean rates are going to change. Interest rates are based on the expectation of what is coming. When the expectation is not what happens, we see very quick market reactions.

The forces pushing against your rate are bigger than the tools being used. The national debt is over $40 trillion right now. We have tariff-driven inflation, and oil above $100 a barrel on geopolitical tension. A $6 billion buyback is small against all of that. It really did need to be a bigger number.

So what is the moral of the story? It is what I have been saying for the last few months: these interest rates are here to stay for a while. They tried, by buying $6 billion in debt, to push yields down and help all of you who need mortgages get better rates. It did not happen.

If you are sitting on the fence thinking a lower interest rate is just around the corner and that it is somehow going to save you from a bad situation, please do not rely on that. Could something nobody expects happen tomorrow and turn it all around? Absolutely — nobody expected today's announcement to go the wrong direction either. But those are one-off events. If inflation, oil and the tensions overseas all keep moving the way they have been, we are not going to see rates move much for quite some time.

So make sure that whatever you are doing, you are comfortable with it: a payment you are able to make, where you have done the due diligence and know you can afford it. If you have been sitting on the fence waiting to do something until rates are lower, you have been waiting a long time, and you are going to keep waiting. It is better to get into something you have budgeted for and are comfortable with than to sit around and do nothing.

### Where rates actually stand

Remember, this is a nationwide show. I am giving you averages: an average rate, for an average loan amount, with average equity, on cookie-cutter financing with full income documentation. This is not your personal scenario, and it is not a rate quote.

Freddie Mac's 30-year average for the week of September the 3rd was 6.71%. The 30-year daily averages were about 6.73% to 6.77%, so roughly six and three-quarters. The 15-year fixed was about 6.07%. I am always looking a week back when I do this live show, because it is impossible for me to give you exact rates from today, and where you land depends on your personal situation and the type of loan you are doing.

The Fed funds target right now is three and a half to three and three-quarters. We have a high likelihood of that being increased at the next meeting — the market is putting the odds of a September hike at about 60 to 63%, based on an article from TechTimes.

### Who a Fed hike actually hits

Who does not benefit from a Federal Reserve hike? Just about everybody. Does it set your mortgage rate? No. But it plays into what you pay immediately if you have a home equity line of credit, outstanding credit card debt or shorter-term financing. If you are shopping for a car loan or a personal loan, you will see those rates up.

So if you have been thinking about a debt consolidation loan, a home equity line of credit, a second mortgage — any of those things — I would suggest you start making those phone calls. Call my office and I am always happy to point you in the right direction if it is something I do not do. But if it is home related, I do it: equity lines, second mortgages, just about every residential financing product. I do not do commercial.

### The economic backdrop

Unemployment right now is 4.1%, which is very low, and the Fed's goal has always been low unemployment and low inflation. Headline CPI is 3.4%, core CPI is 2.5%, and core PCE is 3.3%.

I could do a whole show on what CPI is, what core CPI is and what core PCE is, because people hear these terms all the time without knowing what feeds into them. If that is something you want, send me a message through the website and let me know.

The base case for next week is still a hold, but the live debate has shifted from hold versus cut to hold versus hike, which is the story of this year. Everybody was feeling like they would hold; then we had our highest odds of a hike; then a good chance of a hold; and right now we are back to a very good likelihood of a hike.

### No parties, no blame

I want to be very clear that there are no parties, no figures and no blame here. Inflation is where inflation is. It started well before the president sitting in the seat today, and the roots of it go back to COVID, which was out of everybody's control.

The Federal Reserve makes the decisions on its own rate, and during COVID they chose to drop it to zero. That was the right call at the time — people could not go to work, could not go to stores or restaurants, and something had to be done to keep the economy moving. In my opinion, they left rates too low for too long, and that is just my opinion. When money is essentially free to borrow, it creates a stir: companies flourishing, more startups than ever, new LLCs and S corps, and a lot of retail spending on top of the stimulus money coming in. But the president does not control the Federal Reserve. The Fed is its own entity, and those were its decisions.

### What one consumer can actually do

So what can you do as a consumer to help with inflation? People say they are living check to check and that everything is more expensive, and they are still spending. The spending needs to slow down. When spending slows, companies selling goods sell less, inventory sits, and when inventory sits they cut prices — and that is how inflation comes back down.

Yes, you are one person. But if every single person slows down spending and stops buying things they do not need, it ripples through the market. That is how you would be able to help.

### Wrap-up

A quick recap. The buyback announced today was $6 billion in 10- and 20-year notes through early November, against forecasts of about $10 billion and conservative forecasts of $7 to $8 billion. The prior pledge, back on August the 19th, was about $2 billion. The 10-year Treasury today was 4.841%, the 30-year 5.292%, the 2-year 4.415%. The odds of a September hike are running between 60 and 63%. The national debt is above $40 trillion and oil is above $100 a barrel. Labor is great; inflation, not so much.

If you have questions, please reach out — I am easy to get hold of. You can schedule an appointment on my calendar at mortgagemomradio.com, and you can see my whole calendar there and book an hour by phone. You can send me a quick email right through the website. And get on the weekly newsletter: I send it at 3 p.m. on Friday. If you signed up and are not getting it, check your junk or spam folder and click “not spam,” because that tells the mail providers people want it.

Thank you all for watching. I love that you are here every Wednesday — share the show and tell your friends. I will be back next Wednesday at 3 p.m. Want to know when I go live? Text the word LIVE to 844-935-3634\. Have a fabulous rest of your day.

Debbie Marcoux is licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, NMLS ID #237926, and additionally licensed in AZ (0941504), CO (100546228), FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, NV, NC, OR, TN, TX, and WA. Rates and figures discussed were current as of the air date of September 9, 2026, reflect national averages, and are not an offer of credit or a rate quote. Debbie Marcoux is not a financial advisor; consult qualified professionals about your individual situation.