> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.mortgagemomradio.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # PPI Went Negative — Should You Lock a Mortgage Rate Before the Fed Meets? - URL: https://www.mortgagemomradio.com/ppi-went-negative-should-you-lock-a-mortgage-rate-before-the-fed-meets/ - Published: 2025-09-10T21:01:17.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-04T17:10:07.000Z - Description: Producer prices came in well below expectations — negative inflation — and the experts say the Fed cut is all but certain. Debbie explains why mortgage rates improve before the announcement, not on it, and why the October 2024 rate window lasted barely a week before an 11-month wait. - Author: Deborah Marcoux - Tags: Podcast, Mortgage Mom Radio, #episode-backfill Mortgage Mom Radio • “PPI (Producer Price Index) came in well below expectations showing negative inflation.” • Live show from Wednesday, September 10, 2025 • 17 minutes • Hosted by Debbie Marcoux, NMLS #237926 Good news and good news: the Producer Price Index came in significantly below expectations this morning — negative producer-side inflation — and the experts now see next week's Fed rate cut as all but certain. In this quick episode, Debbie explains why mortgage rates improve *before* a Fed announcement rather than on the day of it, what tomorrow's CPI report could change, and why the last comparable rate window — October 2024 — lasted barely a week and then took 11 months to come back. ## Key takeaways - **PPI came in significantly below expectations** — showing negative inflation on the producer side. Combined with a worse-than-expected jobs report, the experts' read is “how could they not cut?” at next week's Fed meeting. - **The improvement is already happening.** Rate sheets have been improving for three straight weeks — only one bad day in the stretch — because markets price a cut in ahead of the meeting, not on announcement day. - **Tomorrow's CPI report is the last big test.** Better than expected further cements the cut; hotter than expected could put a pause — or a kibosh — on it. - **Mortgage applications are at their highest level in three weeks**, and mortgage-backed securities are looking more attractive to investors — both of which help push rates the right way. - **Expect sideways movement until the Fed speaks.** Three straight weeks of improvement isn't normal; Debbie expects a quiet stretch until Wednesday. If the Fed surprises and doesn't cut, rates could get worse very quickly. - **The October 2024 lesson:** the last time rates were slightly below today's levels, the window lasted about a week — and 11 months later we still haven't fully returned to it. Get your application in now: you don't have to lock, but a loan can't be locked until the application is complete. ## Chapters - 01:00PPI comes in well below expectations - 01:00Correction: the Fed decision is next Wednesday - 03:00“How could they not cut?” — jobs miss plus producer deflation - 03:00Mortgage applications hit a three-week high - 04:00CPI comes out tomorrow — what it could change - 05:00Three weeks of green candles — and a caution - 06:00If the Fed doesn't cut, rates can turn fast - 07:00Lock or float? Talk to your loan officer daily - 08:00Why an incomplete application can't be locked - 10:00October 2024: a one-week window, then 11 months of waiting - 11:00Debbie's outlook: better rates over the next 24 months - 14:00What to expect over the next seven days - 16:00Wrap-up: next week's live Fed-reaction show ### Want in before the Fed decides? Call [844-935-3634](tel:8449353634) (844-WE-LEND-4), [start an application](https://www.mortgagemomradio.com/apply/), or run your numbers with the [mortgage calculators](https://www.mortgagemomradio.com/tools/). Get the weekly rate rundown in the [newsletter](https://www.mortgagemomradio.com/newsletter/). Full transcript (lightly edited for clarity) *Auto-generated captions cleaned for readability. Sponsor messages, commercial breaks, and repeated housekeeping have been trimmed; licensing information appears at the bottom of this page.* ### PPI comes in well below expectations Welcome to Mortgage Mom Radio. I'm Debbie Marcoux, the Mortgage Mom, and today we are talking about good news and good news — we've got good news all around. PPI came in this morning. That is the Producer Price Index, and it came in significantly lower than what we were all expecting to see. What this shows is that we've got negative inflation — we are coming down, and we're coming down fast. As we've talked about in previous shows: the reports create the drama, and the drama creates the rates. Interest rates move based on reports and anticipation — what is the Fed going to do with this new information? Now, I do have to roll something back and apologize for a minute. On last week's show I kept saying the Fed was talking today — I counted the days wrong. The Fed's decision actually comes next Wednesday, and I'll be on at one o'clock that day, about an hour behind the announcement. That gives me enough time to watch the press conference and then bring you how the market is reacting to the news. ### “How could they not cut?” With that PPI coming in better than expected — significantly lower than anticipated — everything has been thrown into a good place. We were already getting improving prices, and the 10-year note was coming down accordingly on the assumption the Fed is going to cut. Today's PPI report has basically cemented that decision — at least that's what the experts believe. Their read is: how could they not cut at this point? We've had a worse-than-expected jobs report, and now a deflation reading on the producer side. So we're seeing a lot of positive: the 10-year note is coming down, and stock futures are looking good. One more thing to mention: mortgage applications are at their highest level of the last three weeks. More people are applying — getting ready to get on the streets and look at homes, or interested in a refinance. When mortgage applications are more abundant, that also plays into the 10-year note: it's more attractive for investors to buy those notes and bonds, and that in itself helps interest rates get better. Right now, mortgage-backed securities are looking like a really safe bet, and more and more attractive to investors. ### CPI comes out tomorrow Now, tomorrow we get CPI — the consumer price index. If that comes in better than expected, it could further cement next week's decision for the Fed to cut. If it comes in higher than anticipated, that could put a slight pause — or maybe a kibosh — on whether we get that rate cut. So tomorrow is another big day with another big report. We've talked about this numerous times on the show: the reports are what drive things, and what move investors to put money into notes, bonds, and mortgage-backed securities — or not to. ### Three weeks of green candles — and a caution One thing I do want to caution you on: we've now had three straight weeks of improving prices. We had one day — one bad red candle — where rates went the other direction, and every other day for three weeks has been holding steady or improving. If you watch the candles on stocks, or on Bitcoin if you follow those guys, you know what I mean. But improving, improving, improving is not really reality — we don't typically see that. We're probably going to see some sidestepping for a little while: one report tomorrow, and then everybody holding their breath waiting for Wednesday. We're expecting the Fed to cut. Interest rates have been improving based on that expectation. If they don't cut, interest rates could get worse — and they could get worse very, very quickly. ### Lock or float? Talk to your loan officer So if you've been out looking at homes, you have a contract, you've got a refinance application in, and you've been waiting to lock hoping for the best rate possible — which, by the way, I don't blame you for; that's how I work — you should be having a conversation with your loan officer. Should we lock to grab the gains we've seen? Should we keep floating and ride this out? It's very possible we sidestep for a while — no movement at all — which is what I'd anticipate between tomorrow and next Wednesday. Next Wednesday could be a huge market mover — or not. If they cut the rate, that's what everybody's expecting, so it's probably not a big mover. We could actually see rates get slightly worse if the cut is smaller than the market expected, or improve a bit more if they cut more than expected. But it's typically not the day of the announcement that moves the market — it's the lead-up and the anticipation. If they don't move the rate at all, though, we could very quickly see things get worse. So stay in touch with your loan officer, talk daily, and make the best decision for you on locking versus riding it out. And if you have an application started but haven't finished your documents, get those in — loans can't be locked until applications are complete. ### The October 2024 lesson You've got seven days to get your application in to be able to take advantage of where rates are today, just in case things go the wrong direction next Wednesday. Now, you might be thinking: she's just fearmongering to get us to do an application. Guys, I have always been truthful and honest with you, so let me take you back to October of 2024. In October 2024, we had about a week — maybe seven days at the very longest — where we could lock people at rates below where we are today. Then it went away. And since that time it's been eleven months, and we have not come back down to those levels. Yes, the news is great. We're moving in the right direction, slowly, and all the information coming through is positive. Do I think we'll continue to get better rates over the next 24 months? I absolutely do. I think many of you will have opportunities to refinance, get cash out, get things consolidated, purchase a home — and then have another opportunity to lower that rate further for a better monthly payment. But if things spike, how long it takes to come back down and reopen that opportunity is a big question mark. There's just no way to know. This time around, we're almost at the levels we hit in October of 2024 — but not quite. I'm still not quoting the rates I could lock back then. So if you want at least the opportunity to take advantage, you need your application started, and we need your electronic consent, so we have what we need to lock that rate if the moment comes. ### The next seven days So here's the shape of it: tomorrow we get one more big report. Then I anticipate — and this is the Mortgage Mom me anticipating — that the 10-year note, bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and stock futures all kind of side-crawl. A pretty dull seven days. Then the Fed comes out and talks, and that could be a very little market mover or a very big one, in either direction. If you've been trying to get a refinance started, this is your seven-day window. I'm putting you on notice: get the application in. We do not have to lock at today's rate — we can go day by day and make the decision as each day comes, trying to get you the lowest rate possible. But remember: the last time we got to rates slightly below today's, it took 11 months to get back. ### Wrap-up Grandma Lisa jumped on — so great to see you — and said she'll finish watching later. You're very welcome. Nice, quick, and easy show today: great news, great news, great news. Next week is the big one — the telltale sign of where we go from here. Make sure you catch next week's show live as we cover what the Fed said and how the market reacts. Text the word LIVE to 844-935-3634 — that's 844-WE-LEND-4 — to get one text when I go live, and that's also the number to call my office. You can go to mortgagemomradio.com and use the contact form, or email me directly — it's Debbie with two B's and an IE. I'll see you next Wednesday at 1 p.m. right here on YouTube. Have a fabulous rest of your week. Debbie Marcoux is licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, NMLS ID #237926, and additionally licensed in AZ (0941504), FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, NV, NC, OR, TN, TX, and WA. Rates and figures discussed were current as of the air date of September 10, 2025, reflect national conforming averages, and are not an offer of credit or a rate quote. Debbie Marcoux is not a financial advisor; consult qualified professionals about your individual situation.