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# Housing Market Predictions for 2024: Will Home Prices or Mortgage Rates Come Down?
- URL: https://www.mortgagemomradio.com/housing-market-predictions-for-2024-will-home-prices-or-mortgage-rates-come-down/
- Published: 2023-11-29T21:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-04T17:23:52.000Z
- Description: Debbie reads two 2024 housing forecasts side by side — HousingWire and Bankrate — and translates each one: where rates settle, whether inventory improves, whether prices actually drop, and whether next year favors buyers or sellers. Then she gives her own call.
- Author: Deborah Marcoux
- Tags: Podcast, Mortgage Mom Radio, #episode-backfill

Mortgage Mom Radio • “Housing Predictions for 2024!” • Live show from Wednesday, November 29, 2023 • 40 minutes • Hosted by Debbie Marcoux, NMLS #237926

If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for home prices to fall, this is the show that tells you what the forecasters actually expect. Debbie reads through two 2024 housing outlooks — one from HousingWire and one from Bankrate — side by side, translating each one as she goes: where rates settle, whether inventory improves, whether prices drop, and whether next year is a buyer's or a seller's market. Then she gives her own take, and it isn't the one the fence-sitters are hoping for.

## Key takeaways

- **Rates come down, but not to pandemic levels.** HousingWire's call is that mortgage rates — which hit a more than two-decade high in the fourth quarter of 2023 — begin falling in 2024 and settle between **6% and 6.5%**. Bankrate's forecasters agree rates stay above 6%.
- **Prices are not expected to drop.** NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun predicts home prices *rise* about **3–4%** in 2024\. September 2023's median existing home price of **$394,300** was only about $20,000 short of the highest monthly price NAR has ever recorded.
- **The one scenario where prices dip is narrow and short.** If sellers come back to the market before first-time buyers do, there could be a modest national price dip early in 2024 — but it would be shallow and short-lived, because inventory stays historically low. The markets most at risk are the least affordable, including many major coastal ones.
- **Volume, not value, is what collapsed.** 2023 home sales were on track for the lowest level since 2010\. Existing home sales in September 2023 ran at an annual pace of **3.96 million**, a **15.4%** drop year over year, against a typical year of about 5.2 million. Yun expected sales to rise as much as **15%** in 2024.
- **Inventory stays tight.** September inventory was **1.13 million** existing homes, down 8.1% year over year — a **3.4-month supply** against the five to six months a balanced market needs. Yun's line is that the market could easily absorb a doubling of inventory.
- **The demographics are the real story.** The oldest millennials are in their early 40s and the average first-time buyer is now **36**, the highest on record. If millennials owned at the same rate Gen X did at the same age, there would be **740,000 more homeowners** — pent-up demand waiting on rates and inventory. Meanwhile boomers are staying put, holding sub-3% mortgages with nothing to downsize into.
- **Debbie's own take:** rates start moving down meaningfully by mid-2024 and keep sliding gradually, so it stays a seller's market and gets harder, not easier, to get an offer accepted. Her advice is to get pre-approved now and be ready to strike, rather than waiting for a price drop that the forecasters aren't calling for.

## Chapters

- 01:00What this show covers: predictions for 2024
- 03:00Two forecasts, side by side: HousingWire and Bankrate
- 06:00HousingWire: the lowest sales volume since 2010
- 07:00Where rates settle — 6% to 6.5%, not pandemic levels
- 08:00The chicken-and-egg question on prices
- 09:00Millennials and 740,000 missing homeowners
- 10:00Why boomers staying put keeps inventory tight
- 12:00Q&A: best advice for young Southern California buyers
- 20:00Bankrate: what happens to the housing market in 2024
- 22:00Sales volume down 15.4% year over year
- 23:00Forecasters expect sales up as much as 15%
- 24:00Will inventory increase? 3.4 months of supply
- 26:00Will home prices go down? A 3–4% rise is the call
- 30:00Buyer's market or seller's market in 2024?
- 34:00The Mortgage Mom take: rates down by mid-2024
- 36:00If you bought in 2023, watch for your refinance number

## Questions answered on this show

### “What's your best advice for a young first-time buyer trying to purchase in 2024 in Southern California?”

Be ready. Have the pre-approval done, know today's numbers, and stay tight with your loan officer so you have a beat on rates. Debbie's office has people reaching out after a year away, and the pre-approval they ran back then isn't close to where things sit now. Get the pre-approval rolling, get fresh documents in, and know your cash to close and your real monthly payment. Then have the conversation about what you qualify for at each rate level — at 7.5% you might qualify for $500,000, and at 6.5% that number is different. As rates fall you can afford more house, but so can everyone else. Debbie believes by the middle of 2024 it gets very busy again, more sellers list because a 6% rate is palatable when 8% wasn't, and it becomes 100% a seller's market — which makes it harder to negotiate and harder to get an offer accepted. So get prepared now, and be ready to strike when the iron is hot.

## This week's numbers (week of November 29, 2023 — averages, not quotes)

- What Debbie was quoting about 30 days before this show: **8% to 8.25%** on many scenarios
- What she was quoting the week of this show: **mid sevens**, with some loans in the low sevens
- Forecast range for where 30-year rates settle in 2024: **6% to 6.5%**
- Median existing home price, September 2023: **$394,300** (about $20,000 below the record monthly high)
- Existing home sales pace, September 2023: **3.96 million** annualized, down **15.4%** year over year
- Existing homes for sale, September 2023: **1.13 million**, down 8.1% year over year — a **3.4-month supply**
- Forecast home price change for 2024: **up 3–4%**

*Your rate depends on FICO score, property type, loan balance, and loan purpose. These are national conforming averages for context, not a quote.*

### Get pre-approved now so you're ready when rates move

Call [844-935-3634](tel:8449353634) (844-WE-LEND-4), [start an application](https://www.mortgagemomradio.com/apply/), or run your numbers with the [mortgage calculators](https://www.mortgagemomradio.com/tools/). Get the weekly rate rundown in the [newsletter](https://www.mortgagemomradio.com/newsletter/).

Full transcript (lightly edited for clarity) 

*Auto-generated captions cleaned for readability. Commercial breaks and repeated housekeeping have been trimmed; licensing information appears at the bottom of this page.*

### What we're covering today

Welcome to Mortgage Mom Radio. I'm Debbie Marcoux, I am the Mortgage Mom, and today we're talking about housing predictions for 2024\. Can you believe it? Thanksgiving has come and gone, we're moving into the holiday season, and then it's 2024\. We have about 32 days left in the year.

So what's going to happen next year? What are the experts calling for? Are you somebody who's been on the fence, waiting to buy, feeling priced out? Are home prices going to come down in 2024? Are interest rates going to come down? Is it going to be a buyer's market or a seller's market? We're hitting all of those topics today.

I pulled up two articles, because I like giving you the information I'm reading so you can decipher it the same way I would. Does what they're saying make sense? Do you agree with them? One is from HousingWire and the other is from Bankrate — both very reputable places for information. We'll compare them, and then I'll give you the Mortgage Mom take.

### HousingWire's 2024 outlook

Here's what HousingWire says. In a typical year there are about 5.2 million sales of existing homes nationally, and home prices rise by about 4% year over year. But it's been a long time since we've seen typical. The number of home sales in 2023 will likely be at its lowest level since 2010, and while sales activity will pick up in 2024, transactions will still be below average.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy and the housing market, but there are at least a few things we can count on. Mortgage rates, which reached a more than two-decade high in the fourth quarter of 2023, will begin to come down in 2024 — but they are not coming down to pandemic levels. We are in a new era for mortgage rates, where prospective home buyers should expect rates to settle between 6% and 6.5% next year. Consumers will reset their expectations, and as rates move lower there will be more home buyers and more sellers in the market.

Predicting where home prices are going will become a game of which came first, the chicken or the egg. If sellers are enticed into the market before first-time buyers get back in, we could see home prices dip early in 24 at a national level. If there are price drops they will be modest and short-lived, simply because inventory will still be very low by historic standards. The markets with the greatest risk of price corrections are the country's least affordable, including many major coastal markets. If buyers come back before sellers, we are in for a competitive market with prices rising.

Prospective first-time buyers may continue to sit out the for-sale market in early 24, as there are more deals in the rental market — record levels of new apartment construction have led to rent declines and concessions, making it more attractive to rent than buy in some places. However, the desire for homeownership is very strong. The underlying demographic fundamentals indicate strong demand and low inventory in 2024 and through the rest of the decade. Through the rest of the decade — listen to that. We're talking all the way to 2030.

The oldest millennials are now in their early 40s, but the age of a first-time home buyer, 36, is the highest on record, and homeownership rates for this cohort are significantly lower than for prior generations. If millennials were homeowners at the same rate that Gen Xers or young boomers were at the same age, there would be 740,000 more homeowners in the US. That is a significant amount of pent-up demand, some of which is waiting for a drop in rates and more inventory.

While inventory will increase somewhat next year, supply will still be low, largely due to the other big demographic cohort affecting the market: boomers are staying in their homes longer. Sub-3% mortgage rates and a lack of homes to downsize into have contributed to the slower pace of listing activity. These demographic factors are the primary reason home prices will remain firm and will grow in most markets in 2024.

There are potential wild cards to consider — another strain of the coronavirus is always a threat lurking in the corner, and God we hope not; geopolitical risks and economic recession could amplify consumer anxiety and lead to less home buying and selling activity. And while presidential elections don't tend to have an outsized impact on the housing market in most cycles, it could be a different story if there's further deterioration in the political landscape.

That's where they leave it. They don't really give you their opinion. What they do say is that if first-time buyers come to market before the sellers finally get sick of waiting, prices go up further and it gets more difficult to buy. If sellers come out of the woodwork first because they're tired of waiting, ready to move, ready to downsize, then we get more inventory and a quick dip in 24 — but not a substantial dip and nothing that lasts long. A very small window where you might get more inventory to choose from and a little more negotiating room.

### Bankrate's 2024 outlook

They didn't really give their opinion, which is why I went to what Bankrate thought. I think they get more detailed, more into the guts of it. Their article is called Housing Market Predictions 2024, published around November 14th or 15th, so a week or two ago. I'm giving Bankrate total credit for this — this is their content, not mine.

What will happen to the housing market in 2024? Rates roughly doubled in 2022, thanks in part to the Federal Reserve's war on inflation, and have stayed high since. While the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, mortgage lenders take cues from them, and mortgage rates climbed in tandem with the Fed's long string of rate hikes.

Will housing sales decline? While home prices have certainly held firm this year, the volume of home sales has softened considerably. Existing home sales in September 2023 declined to an annual pace of 3.96 million according to NAR data, which represents a 15.4% drop year over year.

Before I keep going, I want to be very clear: they're not talking about home values dropping. They're talking about the actual number of homes that sold and closed. We're down on the amount of sales. Home prices have remained elevated.

However, these trends may pivot in 2024 if mortgage rates dip. HousingWire thinks they'll come down, and the Mortgage Mom thinks they'll come down as well — keep that in the back of your head.

Retreating mortgage rates will bring more buyers and sellers to the market and get Americans moving again, says NAR — the National Association of Realtors — chief economist Lawrence Yun. At a NAR conference in November, Yun predicted that sales will rise by as much as 15% next year. So in 2024 we really could get back to somewhat more decent transaction levels after dropping 15.4%.

Housing sales are expected to increase a bit from this year, says Chen Zhao, who leads the economics team at Redfin. However, she qualifies: we are not expecting sales to increase dramatically, as rates are likely to remain above 6%. So again, HousingWire said 6 to 6.5%, and this article agrees — rates come down a bit in 24.

Lower mortgage rates would help spur home sales activity, which are expected to increase in 24 compared to 23, says Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. Declining mortgage rates will drive more sellers to trade their existing home and help add much-needed inventory to the market, leading to more transactions.

### Will inventory increase?

Speaking of much-needed inventory: housing supply has been very low throughout 2023\. The overall number of existing homes on the market as of September sat at 1.13 million units, an 8.1% decline since last year. That figure represents only a 3.4-month supply, far short of the five to six months usually needed for a balanced market. There are simply not enough homes for sale. Lawrence Yun says the market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.

So even if a lot of sellers finally come back and say okay, it's time — once I sell I have to go get myself another mortgage, and I'm willing to trade my 3% for a 6%, but I wasn't willing to trade 3% for 8% — we'll see more homes come to market and it gets a little easier to find one. But we're still not at the levels we need for a balanced market. A balanced market means it's not a seller's market and not a buyer's market. It's a level playing field.

For inventory levels to improve significantly there would need to be either a surge of homeowners listing their existing properties or a huge amount of new construction hitting the market, and both seem relatively unlikely. Yun does foresee some increase for 24: there will be more home construction, and more existing homeowners will be willing to sell and give up their low mortgage rates.

### Will home prices go down?

Housing prices have been on fire lately, culminating in historic highs. September's median of $394,300 was only $20,000 short of the highest monthly home price NAR has ever recorded.

So will home prices drop in 24? Probably not, says Yun. Home prices will rise around 3 to 4%, he predicts. So he's predicting appreciation in 2024.

Prices are intricately connected with housing inventory as well, notes Zhao. Sellers are likely to remain reluctant to give up their low interest rate for a much higher one, so inventory will remain constrained, she says. As more time passes, more homeowners may be forced to sell due to life events, so inventory may rise from the current anemic levels, but it's unlikely to increase much. That means prices are unlikely to fall on a year-over-year basis unless demand falters.

So are we going to see home prices come down in 24? Again, HousingWire says only if the sellers all decide to come out at the exact same time and give us an abundance of inventory. That's probably not going to happen, because they're all waiting for rates to come down first, and it needs to be a palatable rate. Could it happen? Yes. And if it does, HousingWire says we get a small window at the beginning of 24 where values might come down, but it's short-lived and it's not a dramatic amount of depreciation.

### Buyer's market or seller's market?

This is what a lot of you want to know, especially if you're a first-time buyer who's been waiting for rates or prices to come down while sellers seem to get everything they want.

It is a seller's market right now, because inventory is low. There aren't enough homes for sale, so when a really nice property comes on the market — and nice means it's in the right price range for a lot of people, or it's fully remodeled so you don't have to walk in and do it yourself — it sells and the seller gets everything they want.

Here's what Bankrate says. In today's market, tight inventory gives sellers the upper hand. There are more buyers than there are homes available, so each home that comes on the market becomes more of a hot commodity than it might if there were more options. Without a significant uptick in inventory, the seller's market seems unlikely to change next year.

And their bottom line on the 24 housing market: the combination of high mortgage rates, steep home prices and low inventory levels are lining up to make the 24 housing market a challenging one for both buyers and sellers. But if rates cool in 24 as some experts predict, then market activity should heat up in response. The complexities of the current conditions mean that now, more than ever, it's smart to lean on the guidance of an experienced local real estate agent — whether as a buyer or a seller, let a pro lead the way.

### The Mortgage Mom take

Nobody has a crystal ball. You have to take what you hear from this person, that person, this article, that article, and then decide what your own opinion is. There's no way for me to know what's happening inside those Federal Reserve meetings or inside the Treasury. But I can take everything I've read and watched and learned and come to an educated opinion about what I think happens.

I think we start to see interest rates come down around mid-2024\. And I don't think — we've *already* started to see rates come down. I want to ring a bell on that. About 30 days ago I was quoting rates in the eights, 8.25% easily, on many loan applications. We are now in the mid sevens. That is a huge drop, very quickly. I can't see us jumping back up. Could it happen? Absolutely. But my opinion is we're slowly going down the elevator — a very gradual decline in mortgage rates.

I've been saying it for the last year: as soon as rates start coming down, there will be a buzz throughout the market. It's a game of telephone. One person finds out rates are in the low sevens, they tell their neighbor, the neighbor tells the next neighbor, and that's how things get busy again.

So if you've been on the fence, if you haven't gotten pre-approved, if you've just been waiting — I would personally not count on home values coming down, and I wouldn't count on rates being dramatically lower immediately. But as soon as rates are lower, and I think we're closer than we are further, we'll see that pickup in the market, which makes it more difficult to get the home you want and to negotiate on the property. So get yourself prepared right now. Get yourself in financial shape to make that purchase if that's your goal for 2024.

And for those of you who already bought in 2023 and ended up with a higher rate: keep your thumb on the market. Follow along, know where rates are, and know the general movement, because there is going to be a really good time to start that refinance and get the payment down. If you've thought about downsizing, about renovations, or you need cash to pay off debt, right now is a good time to reach out and find out what it would look like if rates came down another percent — so that when you hear that number, you know it's time to pick up the phone.

But if you're trying to purchase and you wait until everyone else is already out there doing it, you're going to pay a higher price and you're going to have a hard time getting an offer accepted.

I do believe 2024 is going to be a significantly better year than 23\. More units sold, more transactions, rates a little better, things a little more affordable. I think some of the boomers get to do the downsizing and the moves they've been sitting on. Do I think it's going to be fabulous? I think it's still going to be a little rough, still slower than a typical average market. But so much better than 23 — and I think it just keeps improving into 25 and 26.

If you want to join me live, text the word MOM to 844-935-3634 — that's 844-WE-LEND-4\. You'll get one text a week letting you know I'm live, with a link straight to the channel so you can ask questions during the show. It's the same number to call the office, whether you want a pre-approval, a refinance, debt consolidation or a reverse mortgage. I'll be back next Wednesday at one o'clock Pacific on YouTube. Talk to you all real soon.

Debbie Marcoux is licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, NMLS ID #237926, and additionally licensed in AZ (0941504), FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, NV, NC, OR, TN, TX, and WA. Rates and figures discussed were current as of the air date of November 29, 2023, reflect national conforming averages, and are not an offer of credit or a rate quote. Debbie Marcoux is not a financial advisor; consult qualified professionals about your individual situation.